How predictive are the ratings of Morningstars mutual funds

Frankfurt as a renminbi center

From Dr. Oliver Everling | July 24, 2014

A decade ago, one would hardly have thought that the 2014 Euro Exchange Day would be devoted entirely to the topic of “Frankfurt as a Renminbi Center”. Claus Döring, editor-in-chief of the Börsen-Zeitung, introduces Werner Baumann, member of the Board of Management of Bayer AG and President of Deutsches Aktieninstitut, with reference to the "tectonic changes" because the renminbi has already replaced the euro from second place in world currencies and puts the US in the shade with its dollar when it comes to issuing bonds.

“Quite a few consider the full conversion of the renminbi to be likely in five years,” reports Döring. The People’s Bank of China has already given banks more freedom to set exchange rates for private customers. Around 23% of companies in Germany already use the renminbi in their business with China. “The German companies are guided by other motives. Price negotiations come first here. ”Döring observes this with a view to the fact that even more French companies are already working with the renminbi.

For Frankfurt there is not automatically a priority, warns Döring. Other financial centers also have significant quotas. “The Deutsche Bundesbank is still a role model, at least in China. That no longer seems to be the case in Europe, ”says Döring, but underlines his commitment to the euro. But the bundling of forces in Europe leaves much to be desired, China is again ahead of the game.

"China is facing the challenge of liberalizing the renminbi and the associated reduction in bureaucracy on the one hand, and securing development and pursuing a policy that avoids the formation of bubbles and their consequences on the other," explains Döring.

Subjects:Country rating | No comment "

Financial markets reflect geopolitical tensions

From Dr. Oliver Everling | July 23, 2014

Asoka Wöhrmann, CIO Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management, sums up his view of the effects of the current geopolitical tensions on the financial markets: “We expect it will take a long time for the situation in the bond market to subside, but we do not expect the inflows into Bonds, which are seen as a safe haven, are increasing, because a lot has already been priced in. "

Russian government bonds are not directly affected by the sanctions because they are not on the new US sanctions list, for example. The debt profile remains one of the strongest in emerging markets. The biggest impact at the moment is the deteriorating mood.

“We remain positive for corporate bonds from developed countries, but we are monitoring developments around potential new sanctions very closely with corporate bonds from emerging countries. In the medium term, Russian corporate bonds should mainly trade based on the perceived probability of introducing tougher sanctions (particularly valid for index members of the Corporate Emerging Market Bond Index CEMBI). In the medium term, "Wöhrmann predicts," the profits of Russian companies will be less relevant than normal. Based on the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the events in the Middle East, we have not yet seen any significant spread to other emerging market companies. "

So far, the American Dow Jones Industrial Average has been unaffected by the sanctions against Russia. “We expect the equity markets to react to a series of events rather than individual ones, but volatility tends to increase with low volumes in summer. The biggest concern is the impact on European earnings. With regard to the situation in the Middle East, we see higher volatility in the region, but see no effect on global markets. "

Subjects:Stock rating, bond rating | No comment "

Warning of abrupt corrections

From Dr. Oliver Everling | July 22, 2014

Exactly two years ago, the euro zone had its worst-case scenario, the largest accidental accident. Mario Draghi's answer on July 26th, 2012: “Whatever it takes”. These words ushered in the temporary end of the euro crisis. Since then, the market has been relying on the "Draghi Put" and the resulting market relaxation. But the calm is deceptive. This is the opinion of Heinz-Werner Rapp, Chief Investment Officer at FERI AG. Rapp warns: “The situation in the euro zone is not really safe. After two years of general anesthesia from the Draghi Put, a rude awakening could soon threaten. "

Although the central bank has consistently contributed to easing the situation, the market is moving away from the fundamentally justified reality. Today, interest rates in the euro zone are again as they were in the best times before the crisis. This seems paradoxical, since practically all euro countries have since increased their debt levels vigorously and their individual creditworthiness has mostly reduced their individual creditworthiness significantly.

According to Rapp, investors still see Draghi's words as an implicit guarantee, not only for the continued existence of the euro, but also for the solvency of the highly indebted countries. “As a result, government bonds from the EMU periphery became a seemingly risk-free“ free lunch ”for many investors, explains the FERI board of directors. The situation on the EMU bond markets is now clearly overheated and characterized by herd behavior. In this situation, fundamental risks would neither be correctly perceived nor adequately priced in. This trend would be reinforced by large-volume carry trades by foreign investors, for example from Japan.

Rapp points out that the market is currently significantly underestimating the real risks. In addition, there are doubts about the effectiveness of the Draghi put in an emergency, especially after the last rulings of the Federal Constitutional Court. Investors in the European bond markets should be prepared for sudden corrections in the near future. In addition, the Yen-EURO exchange rate should be closely monitored in the near future, as a possible signal for a withdrawal of global carry trade investments.

Subjects:Stock rating, bond rating, country rating | No comment "

Recognize the change in payment patterns

From Dr. Oliver Everling | July 22, 2014

FICO (NYSE: FICO), a leading provider of predictive analytics and decision management software solutions, has launched FICO Debt Manager 9.5. Many new functions are intended to help banks, savings banks, public institutions, trading companies, energy suppliers and debt collection agencies to work more profitably - and to secure them in accordance with the rules. The software solution enables users to reduce operating costs, increase the repayment of outstanding amounts through score-based processes, comply with changing regulations and increase customer satisfaction. The FICO Collection Scores enable the user to determine the appropriate strategy for each arrears account. This greatly optimizes the entire dunning process: companies and organizations that use this system typically see an increase of three to five percent in repayments.

"Payment patterns change very quickly and the number of first-time debtors is increasing," explains Phillip Sertel, Senior Director Central & Eastern Europe and the Middle East at FICO. “In dunning, companies are increasingly relying on analytics so that every customer contact can be evaluated regardless of the communication channel and can contribute to the customer's overall assessment. With the FICO Debt Manager 9.5 we make it easier for our customers to use analytics and thus make them more profitable overall. As part of the democratization of analytics, FICO makes the potential of scoring-based evaluations accessible to every single customer. "

The FICO Debt Manager 9.5 is integrated into the FICO Risk Intervention Manager. The latter automates real-time communication with customers via their preferred communication channel and thus improves communication success. Users of the FICO Risk Intervention Manager are able to post two to four times as many contacts on average - at the same cost, but with an improved ability to choose the right communication channel. The interaction of the FICO Debt Manager with the FICO Risk Intervention Manager guarantees compliance with rules when communicating with the debtor and enables audit-relevant reports to be written more quickly and easily - automatically or manually. "The rapid implementation and interpretation of new regulations can have a huge impact on the performance of a company," explains Sertel. "The FICO solutions regularly provide users with the 'new fundamentals' - from extensive data acquisition and analysis, to analytical-based measures and performance monitoring, to the complete recording of all speech dialogues and improved virtual consultants."

The FICO Debt Manager 9.5 is available both as a cloud solution and as conventional software. The Balance Reduction Plan gives users the ability to set up payment plans for customers whose accounts are overdrawn. The configurable collateral support function standardizes data running in parallel and enables different seizure categories such as vehicles, real estate or financial instruments to be defined. FICO's debt management solutions are trusted by more than 200 lenders, retailers, energy companies, healthcare providers, government agencies and debt collection agencies around the world.

Subjects:Debtor Rating | No comment "

Then it works again

From Dr. Oliver Everling | July 21, 2014

The proliferating literature on help in life, self-management, personal development and communication must give food for thought: Either the need for communication of authors and experts has increased, so that the increasing supply may also create its demand to a certain extent, or there are actually more and more people looking for it People according to new priorities, so that the increasing demand allows the supply of relevant books to grow.

The book "Geht’s noch ?: Impulses for quality of life and serenity in everyday life and at work“Comes into this market segment. The author, Dirk Rauh, born in 1965 and grown up in a small Swabian town, started studying business administration with integrated teaching and became self-employed in sales. After spending several years in the USA with formative seminars and training courses in communication and personal development, he established himself as a trainer and seminar provider in the field of communication, personal development and NLP, starting in 2001 with the development of the seminar concept "E-in-sich-T."

The increasing regulation of the financial sector, which has only just begun in the numerous EU regulations and directives and which will continue for years due to numerous legal repairs, will secure customers for many years to come for trainers and authors like Dirk Rauh. Anyone who has to apply contradicting rules for many years and who works in banks or other organizations that can only be kept alive through constant new state intervention, or who realizes that the glut of money from the central banks merely postpones today's problems to the future poses every now and then the question of the author of this book may arise: "Is it still possible?"

For example, how should rating analysts agree with their conscience if, based on all the facts, they see reason for the downgrading of the country rating, but are forced, under the threat of heavy penalties, to give savers a better rating for government bonds, at least temporarily, on the basis of the EU regulation on rating agencies real situation of national debt to deceive? At the same time, politicians never tire of talking about the failure of the rating agencies and punishing the bearers of the bad news so that the contradictions are perpetuated.

“Think outside the box, change direction or pace, set priorities: That can be life-changing,” says Rauh and shows steps towards change, more serenity and satisfaction. Rauh sets creative impulses in the reader by transporting his messages in the truest sense of the word in color and not only relying on words, but also on the reader's intuitive perception and understanding.

The structure of his new book is simple and concise: Garbage, World Power, Illusion, Guarantee, EinichT, Jetzt, Wert-full. As the table of contents shows, Rauh does not join the ranks of gurus who promise miraculous healing through belief in esoteric powers. Rather, in his own words, the book gives "impetus to experiment, to be amazed, to think, to feel, to change and certainly enough to smile about the madness of life".

Rauh helps in a very practical way to regain clarity in your head. The chapter “Garbage” hides the invitation to say goodbye to the many superfluous things, including meaningless meetings or events. His formulation will remind some students of tax law of the lectures of a leading tax expert in Germany, Prof. Dr. Klaus Tipke (tax law): Because Tipke also regularly spoke of the "waste of knowledge" to be removed, which every day leaves the tax authorities, courts, tax consulting companies, auditing companies and universities, or is spread by them and obscures more than clears the view of the essentials.

Subjects:Reviews | No comment "

Book recommendations

From Dr. Oliver Everling | July 18, 2014

Subjects:News | No comment "

Certificate course "Compliance Officer (Univ.)" Sets new quality standards

From Dr. Oliver Everling | July 17, 2014

The next round of the “Compliance Officer (Univ.)” Certificate course starts on October 10, 2014. The university further education of the Center for Further Education and Knowledge Transfer (ZWW) equips the participants with the necessary know-how as well as specific knowledge to recognize illegal actions in the company and to be able to deal with them. In addition, through consistent practical relevance and a holistic view of all important problems, skills are to be learned to recognize legal pitfalls and associated economic risks at an early stage and to get these under control as well as possible.

The “Compliance Officer (Univ.)” Certificate course recently passed the strict quality testing procedure of the FIBAA accreditation agency and received the Certified Continuing Education Course seal of approval. The participants can therefore rely on an extremely high-quality and comprehensive training program. The close cooperation of the ZWW with top-class lecturers enables the combination of professional practical know-how and scientific expertise. A complete spectrum of prevention, detection and response measures is presented right from the start. After passing the exam, the participants are awarded a “Compliance Officer (Univ)” certificate from the University of Augsburg.

Subjects:Company rating | No comment "

FICO secures patents

From Dr. Oliver Everling | July 16, 2014

FICO, a leading provider of predictive analytics and software solutions for decision management, now holds a total of 167 patents with the acquisition of 25 new patents. The patents were awarded to FICO Labs employees for developments that underlie FICO's fraud prevention, cyber security, predictive analytics, and decision management solutions.

Ten of the most recent patents cover analytical innovations on which FICO's industry-leading fraud solution in finance, healthcare and telecommunications is built. These technologies - many of which are part of the FICO Falcon platform - help detect fraud, minimize false values ​​and improve customer satisfaction.

The FICO fraud team has patented a real-time score that determines the likelihood that a computer used in an online transaction is connected to a past online transaction of the customer by including the network behavior between the web server and the customer PC becomes.

In addition, FICO has patented a user-controlled SSL modulator. This is a software system with a method for the secure execution of commercial online transactions, in which "man in the middle" attacks are prevented with the help of special coding.

Subjects:Debtor rating, private customer rating | No comment "

New managing directors at Coface Finanz GmbH

From Dr. Oliver Everling | July 16, 2014

Téva Perreau and Dr. Thomas Götting have been appointed to the management of Coface Finanz GmbH. You follow Franz J. Michel, who has left the Coface. Téva Perreau and Dr.Thomas Götting and Norbert Langenbach form the new top management of Coface Finanz, Coface's factoring company in Germany.

The staffing also expresses the great importance of the factoring business as one of the core competencies of Coface in Germany. "With a joint market development in factoring, we want to further optimize the better integration between Coface Finanz as an important integral part of Coface in Germany", say the new managing directors.

Téva Perreau has been General Manager of the Coface Northern Europe Region (NER) since March 31, 2014. Before moving to the German branch of Coface, he was Group Chief Risks, Organization & IT Officer at the Coface headquarters in Paris. From 2006 to 2010 he was Managing Director of VR Factorem in Eschborn, a joint venture with VR Leasing. Téva Perreau has extensive experience in the financial services industry, which he built in numerous positions across Europe.

Dr. Thomas Götting has been Commercial Director for the Northern Europe Region since March 1, 2014 and is a member of the Management Board of Coface in Germany. In this role he is responsible for sales in the German market as well as the business of the foreign units in the Netherlands, Scandinavia and Russia. Dr. Thomas Götting has more than 14 years of experience in the field of receivables management.

Subjects:Ratings | No comment "

A quarter of a billion invested in the sustainability index

From Dr. Oliver Everling | July 15, 2014

Investors are increasingly relying on the quality of the Sustainability Index Global Challenges Index (GCX) of the Hannover Stock Exchange. The assets invested on the basis of the GCX selection jumped well over the limit of 250 million euros in the first half of the year. This is shown by the evaluation of the fund volumes of the three license products on the index as of June 30, 2014.

The NORD / LB Asset Management Global Challenges Index Fund has been on the market since the index was launched in September 2007 in one tranche for institutional investors (WKN: A0LGNP / ISIN: DE000A0LGNP3) and one for private investors (WKN: A1T756 / ISIN: DE000A1T7561 ) available. The investment fund PRIMA - Jumbo A (WKN: A0JMLV / ISIN: LU0254565053) is aimed primarily at private investors who want to invest in the GCX selection without a minimum investment amount. The third fund is the Superior 6 - Global Challenges Fund (WKN: A0Q7EM / ISIN: AT0000A0AA78) of the bank Schelhammer & Schattera from Austria.

"We are seeing a steady increase in sustainable investments, especially in the demand for GCX products," says Dr. Sandra Reich, Managing Director of the Hanover Stock Exchange. “That confirms our concept of transparent stock selection based on clear sustainability criteria, which are independently and regularly checked on an ongoing basis. Many market participants are still reluctant to make sustainable investments because they are looking for their own definition of sustainability. With the GCX we offer a finished product and thus orientation. The successful performance of the index also proves that sustainability and returns are not mutually exclusive, but can even be mutually dependent. "

Subjects:Sustainability rating | No comment "

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